Well, Liverpool will not be signing Matías Orozco, despite all the noise in Colombia pointing towards Anfield over the past few days.
That comes directly from Colombian journalist Pipe Sierra, who has now ruled the Reds out of the race for the Deportivo Cali midfielder. He stated there is “0% chance of Orozco going to Liverpool”.
He also says the information previously coming from VBar Caracol was wrong. That included claims Liverpool had sent scouts to watch Orozco and that Samuel Martínez was helping convince his close friend to join him at the club.
So, after Liverpool appeared to be the answer to the mystery on Sunday, we’re basically back to detective work. There are, however, quite a few clues.
Liverpool, Leeds and Brentford all ruled out
Sierra is clear that Orozco’s destination is not Liverpool, Leeds United or Brentford. The latter had made a formal approach earlier in the summer, but Sierra had already ruled them out before the Liverpool links really took off.
Leeds were another possibility being discussed in Colombia. When asked about them, Sierra dismissed the suggestion and said the actual destination was a “much better” team.
He offered another useful clue. The club in question is already very well established in the Premier League.
That would seemingly point away from a side expected to spend the season worrying about relegation. Sierra’s followers naturally started throwing more names at him.
Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Newcastle United, Everton, Aston Villa, Fulham and Manchester City were suggested in the chat. Sierra responded that it wasn’t any of those clubs either.
So those weren’t separate links subsequently denied by the journalist. They were guesses put to him as supporters tried to solve the mystery. He later explained the Premier League club involved have specifically asked for their name not to be revealed until the deal is completed.
So who is actually left?
This is where we can do a little investigating, while being very clear that we’re working from Sierra’s clues rather than reporting the destination ourselves.
Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham are among the established Premier League sides Sierra hasn’t ruled out.
There are other technical possibilities among the division’s 20 clubs, but they fit his description less comfortably.
Sierra’s comment about the mystery side being well established appears particularly useful. It should allow us to look away from the recently promoted clubs and narrow things down further.
Brighton are an interesting possibility simply because of the type of deal involved. That’s our observation, though, and not information linking them to Orozco.
The Seagulls have made a habit of investing in young talent before their value rises significantly. An 18-year-old Colombian midfielder at this price would hardly look out of place in that strategy.
Deal won’t trigger €6m clause
There’s also been an important correction over the finances. Reports over the weekend pointed towards Orozco’s €6m (£5.2m) release clause being activated. Sierra says that’s not how the transfer will work.
The Premier League club will instead pay Deportivo Cali a little under €5m (£4.3m). That lower initial figure comes with an important benefit for the Colombian side. Cali will retain between 10% and 20% of a future transaction involving Orozco.
According to Sierra, triggering the clause would leave them without that future percentage. The club have therefore chosen to take slightly less money now and keep a stake in what comes next.
The identity of the buyer is being kept quiet at their own request. That explains why this particular Premier League transfer has turned into a guessing game – and suggests we should get the answer once everything is signed.
